Evaluating Wildfire Hazards in the Protected Areas of the Hyrcanian Temperate Forests

Jahdi, Roghayeh

doi:10.22034/jsst.2025.1593

Evaluating Wildfire Hazards in the Protected Areas of the Hyrcanian Temperate Forests

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Research Paper

Author

Roghayeh Jahdi

Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran

10.22034/jsst.2025.1593

Abstract

Wildfires are an integral part of the natural dynamics of forest ecosystems and play an important role in plant regeneration, nutrient cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem structure. However, in recent decades, climate change, along with human activities, have increased the frequency, severity, and extent of these fires. Given the importance of identifying and managing areas with high fire risk, the aim of this study is to assess fire risk in protected areas of the Hyrcanian temperate forests in northern Iran (Guilan Province). For this purpose, the FlamMap MTT simulation model was used to analyze historical fire patterns in the period 1992-2022 in protected areas of Guilan Province. Using a complete and up-to-date dataset of historical fire data allowed for accurate and reliable analysis of the simulation model results. Guilan Province was selected as the study area due to the frequent occurrence of fires, especially in the autumn and winter seasons. Wildfire hazard maps were generated using burn probability (BP) and conditional flame length (CFL) indices and supported by field data and spatial analyses. The results show that about 8% of fires occurred in protected areas, although these areas cover less than 1% of the total area of the province, but approximately 17.6% of protected areas are located in high or very high hazard zones. These findings emphasize the importance of using fire modeling for the effective conservation and management of Hyrcanian temperate forests, preventive planning, and fire risk reduction, and can be valuable guidance for environmental policymakers and natural resource managers.

Keywords

Wildfire hazard assessment

Temperate forests

Protected areas

FlamMap modeling

Geospatial analysis

Subjects

Remote sensing

Article Title Persian

ارزیابی مخاطرات آتش‌سوزی در مناطق حفاظت شده جنگل‌‌های معتدله هیرکانی

Author Persian

رقیه جهدی

دانشیار، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران

Abstract Persian

آتش‌سوزی‌ها بخش جدایی‌ناپذیری از پویایی طبیعی بوم‌سازگان‌ها هستند و نقش مهمی در تجدیدحیات گیاهی، چرخه عناصر غذایی، تنوع‌زیستی و ساختار بوم‌سازگان‌ها ایفا می‌کنند. با این حال، در دهه‌های اخیر، تغییر اقلیم به همراه فعالیت‌های انسانی باعث افزایش فراوانی، شدت و دامنه آتش‌سوزی‌ها شده‌اند. با توجه به اهمیت شناخت و مدیریت مناطق با ریسک زیاد آتش‌سوزی، هدف این مطالعه ارزیابی مخاطره آتش‌سوزی در مناطق حفاظت‌شده جنگل‌های معتدل هیرکانی در شمال ایران است. برای این منظور، از مدل شبیه‌سازی FlamMap MTT استفاده شد تا الگوهای تاریخی آتش‌سوزی‌های در دوره 2022-1992 در مناطق حفاظت شده استان گیلان تحلیل شود. استفاده از مجموعه داده‌های کامل و به‌روز از داده‌های تاریخی آتش‌سوزی امکان ارائه تحلیل دقیق و قابل اعتماد از نتایج مدل شبیه‌سازی را فراهم آورد. استان گیلان، به دلیل وقوع آتش‌سوزی‌های مکرر، به‌ویژه در فصول پاییز و زمستان، به عنوان منطقه مورد مطالعه انتخاب شد. نقشه‌های مخاطره آتش‌سوزی با استفاده از شاخص‌های احتمال سوختن (BP) و طول شعله شرطی (CFL) تولید شده و با داده‌های میدانی و تحلیل‌های مکانی پشتیبانی شدند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که حدود ۸ درصد از آتش‌سوزی‌ها در مناطق حفاظت‌شده رخ داده است، اگرچه این مناطق کمتر از یک درصد کل مساحت استان را شامل می‌شوند، اما تقریباً 6/17 درصد از مناطق حفاظت‌شده در زون‌های با مخاطره زیاد یا بسیار زیاد قرار دارند. این یافته‌ها بر اهمیت استفاده از مدل‌سازی آتش‌سوزی برای حفاظت و مدیریت مؤثر جنگل‌های معتدل هیرکانی، برنامه‌ریزی پیشگیرانه و کاهش ریسک‌های ناشی از آتش‌سوزی تأکید می‌کنند و می‌توانند راهنمایی ارزشمند برای سیاستگذاران محیط زیست و مدیران منابع طبیعی باشند.

Keywords Persian

ارزیابی مخاطره آتش‌سوزی

جنگل‌های معتدل

مناطق حفاظت‌شده

مدل‌سازی FlamMap

تحلیل مکانی

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