Journal of Space Science and Technology

Journal of Space Science and Technology

Reliability Allocation to Launch Vehicle Subsystems by Using AHP Method in Conceptual Design Phase

Authors
Abstract
The goal of this paper is presenting a methodology for reliability allocation to launch vehicle subsystems using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in conceptual design phase. In this methodology, the goal function is reliability and the main considered criterions are technology, complexity, operational time of each subsystem and cost. For applying AHP method to launch vehicle subsystems reliability allocation, a Matlab code( for investigating compatibility and determining allocation weight factors by employing Matrix Eigen Vector Method) and a Excel sheet( for forming the comparison matrix) are employed. To this point, by using the outcomes of liquid-propellant launch vehicle conceptual design software (LVCD) which developed by authors, the launch vehicle specifications and operational time of each subsystems is derived and is feed to this methodology as input. The results of applying this method to launch vehicle reliability allocation for the second stage of a launch vehicle, shows the error of this method below 2%. It is clear that this small error in reliability issues in conceptual design phase is acceptable.
Keywords

Article Title Persian

تخصیص قابلیت اطمینان زیرسامانه های ماهواره بر با تحلیل سلسله مراتبی در فاز طراحی مفهومی

Authors Persian

مهران میرشمس
سعید ایرانی
امیرمهدی اخلاقی
حسن ناصح
Abstract Persian

هدف از این مقاله، ارائة متدلوژی تخصیص قابلیت اطمینان زیرسامانه‌های ماهواره‌بر با استفاده از روش تحلیل سلسله مراتبی در فاز طراحی مفهومی است. تابع هدف در استفاده از این متدلوژی، قابلیت اطمینان است و معیارهای اصلی، فناوری، پیچیدگی، زمان عملکرد هر زیرسامانه و هزینه درنظرگرفته شده‌اند. برای به‌کارگیری روش تحلیل سلسله مراتبی در تخصیص قابلیت اطمینان زیرسامانه‌های ماهواره‌بر، از لینک کد مطلب (به‌منظور بررسی سازگاری و تعیین وزن‌هایتخصیص با استفاده از روش بردارهای ویژة ماتریسی) و نرم‌افزار اکسل(برای تشکیل ماتریس‌های مقایسة زوجی) استفاده می‌شود. برای این منظور، با استفاده از خروجی‌های نرم‌افزار طراحی مفهومی ماهواره‌بر سوخت مایع (LVCD)که توسط نویسندگان مقاله توسعه یافته است، مشخصه‌های زیرسامانه‌های ماهواره‌بر و زمان عملکرد هر زیرسامانه استخراج می‌شود و به عنوان ورودی این متدلوژی قرار خواهد گرفت. نتایج به‌دست آمده برای تخصیص قابلیت اطمینان به زیرسامانه‌های بلوک مرحلة دوم یک ماهواره‌بر سوخت مایع، میزان خطای روش را کمتر از 2% برآورد می‌کند که در بحث قابلیت اطمینان در فاز طراحی مفهومی قابل قبول است.

Keywords Persian

تخصیص قابلیت اطمینان
ماهواره­بر
تحلیل سلسله مراتبی
[1]Akhlaghi, A. M., Mirshams, M. and Naseh, H., Expendable Launch Vehicle Reliability Modeling by Using Stochastic Method, 1st Conference of Aerospace System Reliability, 1388 (In Persian).
[2] Yang, G., Life Cycle Reliability Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, 2007.
[3] Saaty, T. L., The Analytic Hierarchy Process, Mc Graw-Hill, New York, 1980.
[4] Saaty, T. L., and Vargas, L. G., Inconsistency and Rank Preservation, Journal of Mathematical Psychology, Vol. 28, No. 2, 1984, pp. 205-214.
[5] Saaty, T. L., “Eigenvector and Logarithmic Least Squares”, European Journal of Operational Research, , Vol. 48, No. 1, 1990, pp. 156-160.
[6] Donegan, H. A., Dodd, F. J. and McMaster, T. B. M., “A New Approach to AHP Decision-Making”, The Statistician, Vol. 41, No. 3, 1992, pp. 295-302.
[7] Tung, S. L. and Tang, S. L., “A Comparison of the Saaty’s AHP and Modified AHP for Right and Left Eigenvector Inconsistency”, European Journal of Operational Research, , Vol. 106, No. 1, 1998, pp. 123-128.
[8] Bauer, R. A., Collar, E. and Tang, V., The Silverlake Project, New York: Oxford University Press, 1992.
[9] Saaty, T. L., “Decision Making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process”, International Journal Services Sciences, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2008, pp. 83-98
[10] Mirshams, M. and Hassani, M. “Remote Sensing Satellites Evaluation Software (RSSE Software),” Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, Vol. 81, No. 4, 2009, pp. 323- 333.
[11] Mirshams, M., Karimi, H. and Naseh, H., “Multi-stage Liquid Propellant Launch Vehicle Conceptual Design Based on Combinatorial Optimization of Major Design Parameters,” Journal of Space Science and Technology (JSST), Vol. 1, No. 1, 2008, pp. 21-36 (In Persian).   
[12] Mirshams, M., Karimi, H., and Naseh, H., “Multi-Stage Liquid Propellant Launch Vehicle Conceptual Design (LVCD) Software Based on Combinatorial Optimization of Major Design Parameters,” Journal of Space Science and Technology (JSST), Winter 2009, pp.17-25 (In Persian).
 [13] Zachary, C. Krevor, Alan Wilhite, an Approach for Calculating the Cost of Launch Vehicle Reliability,” AIAA SPACE 2007 Conference & Exposition, 2007, Long Beach, California.
[14] Bilton, R. and Allen, R., “Reliability of Engineering Systems Assessment, Translation,”  Translator Dr. M. Rezaean, Amir Kabir University of Technology Publication, Second Edition, 2000 (In Persian).
[15] Available: [on line], http://www.gonesolar. blogspot. com.
[16] Akhlaghi, A. M., Considertion of Cost Estimation and Reliability Assessment Models in Space System Design, (M.Sc. Lecture), Aerospace Faculty, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Fall 2008 (In Persian). 
 [17] Villeneuve, F., Mavris, D. N., A Method for Concept and Technology Exploration of Aerospace Architectures, (Ph.D. Thesis), School of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2007.
[18] Guikema, S. D. and Pat´e-Cornell, M. E., “Bayesian Analysis of Launch Vehicle Success Rates,” Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 41, No. 1, 2004, pp. 93-102.
[19] Available: [on line],  http://www.b14643.de
[20] Isakowitz, S. J., Hopkins, J. B., Hopkins, J. P., International Reference Guide to Space Launch Vehicle Systems, Published by AIAA, 2004.
Volume 5, Issue 2 - Serial Number 11
شماره پیاپی 11
Summer 2012
Pages 49-57

  • Receive Date 19 April 2014
  • Revise Date 17 January 2024
  • Accept Date 19 April 2016
  • First Publish Date 19 April 2016